Although the agency has never made the specifications public, a five member group of Japanese aircraft makers headed by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries seems to have all the inside information. Last January 1986, the group organized a Joint Civilian FSX Research Committee and in April 1986 issued a recommendation that the Defense Agency should allow domestic aircraft makers to undertake the FSX project. A model of their proposed FSX was even shown on TV. Judging from these developments, one can only assume that the Air Self Defense Force had secretly passed the required FSX performance data to the relevant domestic aircraft manufacturers. On the question of where to buy the aircraft, the issue boils down to this: if cost efficiency is the only consideration, the most economic way is to purchase a ready-made aircraft with compatible capabilities abroad. However if the argument is that it is absolutely necessary to nurture fighter manufacturing capability in Japan, there is no alternative but to build the FSX at home. JAPAN TIMES 7/13/86 p.16
Osamu Kaihara, former secretary general of the National Defense Council (now the Cabinet Security Affairs Office.)
In the opinion of this publication Japan has decided that it is absolutely necessary to build fighter manufacturing capability in Japan. The reason for this we do not venture, but arguments of domestic production in terms of cost efficiency are not convincing. As we have stated in our past few issues, we believe that the reason for the constant delay in the selection of the next generation support fighter for Japan, the FSX, is that the Japanese government has been waiting for a period of political calm between the US and Japan before it announces what it really wants to do--despite PR to the contrary--select an all Japanese made aircraft. At a time when the Japanese government has just announced a massive "go-it-alone" space program for Japan, that it would seek its own development of jet aircraft seems consistent policy making. In both industries the Japanese piggybacked their way to advanced technologies on the back of the Americans. The Americans made their technologies available to the Japanese, but many, including this writer, doubt whether the Japanese would return the favor to the Americans. Indeed the Japanese have announced that they will not provide certain rocket technologies to McDonnel Douglas, and are closing out all foreign firms from participation in their TRON computer operating system.
In terms of Japanese willingness to share their technology, after having developed their own aircraft industry from American licenses, the following, from Japan's leading business daily may be of interest:
Behind this attitude is the confidence of the Japanese aircraft manufacturers that they can beat the Americans in the latest technologies required for the FSX such as stealth technologies and CCV technologies (permitting aircraft to turn or rise or fall without banking). The idea is to limit American participation to engines or some devices to be installed. The view is strongly held that "the Self Defense Agency itself is leaning in this direction"...What they are thinking is that officially ( superficially--tatemae) "the Americans will develop the plane and the Japanese will build it." In reality however Japan will develop it, but for purposes of appearance license royalties will be paid to the Americans. In this way the trade problems can be avoided. In that case however, the stealth and CCV technologies will belong to the Americans. In that case, the Japanese are warning (keikai) "the real objective of the Americans is to get their hands on the latest technologies necessary for their next generation fighters, the ATF (Advanced Technology Fighter), which is currently under development."
NIHON KEIZAI. 6/1/87, p.35.
Why are the Japanese alarmed at the Americans getting their hands on technologies they plan to use in their FSX? They have certainly received massive amounts of technology from the Americans at bargain basement prices.
There a number of areas where tne Japanese claim to be ahead of the Americans:
---First of all is in composite materials, such as carbon fibers, which would be an essential element in stealth technologies. Fuji Heavy Industries has already reportedly installed numerically controlled laminators and filament winders at its aircraft factories in anticipation of the project. The Japanese note that even the composite materials used in the F-15, built by McDonnell Douglas, are made under a license from Japanese firms. Moreover, 40$ of the weight of the FSX aircraft is expected to be made from such composites.
---The Japanese also claim to be at least five years ahead of the US in active phased array radars, which the US plans to install in its Advanced Technology Radar, which is now under development.
---In April 1987 the Japanese Self Defense Agency installed the radar for a year of testing in its C-l aircraft. The Agency has also installed a new electronic control system in its F-15 aircraft.
---In conjunction with Mitsubishi Electric the Defense Agency has recently developed a super LSI chip for jet fighters which will be able to make one million calculations per second, even under the massive stress conditions found in jet aircraft. It plans to install the chips in jet fighters in 1988 for testing purposes and will certainly use them in the FSX fighter. It claims that the US is also working on a similar chip, but it is still under development.
In preparation for the development of the FSX aircraft, Japan has also entered upon a major renovation effort for its F4EJ Phantom jets. The renovation effort aims at improving look-down radar, and antiship missile capabilities. Specifically, improvements will be made in: fire control systems, missiles, flying capabilities, enemy detection, and radar warning, Although many electronic devices will be produced under license from the US, system development will be totally handled by the Japanese. Indeed, the Americans are pressing the Japanese to buy entirely new planes instead of making expensive renovations. Renovations are expected to cost 1.8 billion yen per plane for 100 planes. But as the Japanese note:
Air force experts emphasize that "major renovations are exactly the same as making an entirely new system." Thus it can be said that the side benefit of renovating the F4EJ is technological development, not just military applications, is important indeed. NIKKEI SANGYO 7/27/87 p.3.
In fact, the most commonly used argument by the Japanese industry, in pushing their case for totally Japanese development of the FSX (in addition to the simple argument that because its defense we should only build it ourselves) is the opportunity this would present to develop new advanced technologies--in short another targeted high technology industry at government expense. In fact, according to the 110 corporate member Japan Weapons Industry Association "We would like to have this plane made in Japan so that the technology will stay in Japan." (NIKKAN KOGYO. 6/3/87, p.9)
It is only because some members of the US government have made it a trade issue that the Japanese have delayed the decision. It is only because the US trade deficit with Japan has not improved, despite a myriad of market opening packages and a massive strengthening of the yen, that the Americans have raised the issue as a test case of Japan's market opening policy. In the case of currency revaluations and market opening packages, a myriad of small factors can and have been used to obscure why there has been no improvement in the trade statistics. With respect to these jet fighters however, the issue is clear. American fighter planes are premier examples of American high technology. and the Japanese have nothing to match them. Here Americans can offer a superior product at a cheaper price (which the Japanese use to justify their trade surpluses) and as a big ticket item they could make a big dent in America's trade deficit. But as is the usual case when high technology is involved and Americans have superior products, whether it be supercomputers, space programs or airplanes, the Japanese make a mighty exception to the principles of free trade upon which its own economy has flourished (the better product at the cheaper price wins). A nation with minimal defense spending, which has flourished under a defense umbrella paid for by the American government, will not purchase defense products from the Americans, by insisting on either producing them in Japan under license or, more recently, works to develop competing products which are often then sold at cheaper prices to undercut the American firms--witness supercomputers. The Toshiba scandal also fits in perfectly with these types of commercial practices.
As mentioned at the outset, the Japanese manufacturers have somehow obtained the specifications desired by the Defense Agency. American competitors have not been so lucky. Yet they have been charged with deficiencies for not meeting specifications that are not shown to them. Indeed, what limited specifications they have seen came only after substantial pressure from the US government that American manufacturers be given a chance. Yet the feeling of the American participants at a seminar to let them submit competing proposals, was that the entire effort was only a new procedure--the decision had already been made. Indeed, according to US military experts, the specifications for the new plane do not meet the defense needs expected of Japan--to counteract in a defensive manner, a Soviet entry into Japan. In fact, the US military has warned Japan. (according to the JAPAN TIMES) that the proposed plane would violate Japan's constitution, permitting military spending only peaceful or defensive purposes. In other words, the proposed plane goes beyond defensive purposes.
In the most recent case the final decision has been delayed to August or September 1987, a full year delay in making the decision. A number of missions from the US government and industry have visited Japan, pushing their case for buying American. Even Secretary of Defense Weinberger visited Japan in late June 1987 primarily to push the case. Representatives of the American industry have visited their Japanese counterparts repeatedly to also push for joint development project to improve on existing American planes. They note that Japan plans to produce only about 100 of the planes at a rate of about 10 per year. The Japanese could not possibly produce the planes at rates cheaper than in the US where they are mass-produced. The appreciation of the yen has made American products even more competitive. But the Japanese consortium (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. Fuji Heavy Industries, Kawasaki Heavy Industries. Ishikawajima Harima Heavy Industries and Mitsubishi Electric Corp) still insist that they can produce the planes cheaper at 5-6 billion yen. Of course in a government financed project, backed a highly supportive and not very open government, means can be found to find additional funds for this group, Japan's core military industrial complex, via payments on other projects for example. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, the prime contractor, has proposed that American participation be limited to only wind-tunnel testing and computer simulation. At a minimum the Americans want joint development of a new plane centered around an existing American plane. But according to an official of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries:
This is a matter of defense, so domestic development is the first priority and joint development under Japan's control is the second. JAPAN TIMES, 6/26/87, p.6.
The FSX plane is to replace the F-l support fighters the Japanese military have. The Japanese have only 75 of the planes and another 93 F-15 fighters produced under license from McDonnell Douglas. This shows the limited size of the Japanese market, making production of an airplane for only the Japanese market highly uneconomical, but only if it is limited te the Japanese market. Indeed some newspapers note that the Ministry of Finance and the Foreign Ministry are opposed to independent development in Japan as the massive expense is not worth spending on only 100 planes.
But it appears that the Japanese have already made their decision and are only waiting for the most opportune moment to spring it on the Americans:
The Defense Agency plans to hold a final round of consultations with the US Department of Defense in August before the government makes a final decision on the next support fighter for the Air Self Defense Forces agency sources revealed Sunday...The panel, headed by Naoaki Murata, the counselor at the secretariat of the Defense Agency director general. is reportedly leaning toward developing an entirely new fighter instead of buying an existing US model. "It is essential that we don't give the American side cause for undue optimism," one official in charge of the FSX project said. JAPAN TIMES. 7/20/87, p.2)
In a May 1987 meeting with Secretary of Defense Weinberger, Japanese Diet member Joji Omura, former Director General of the Self Defense Agency stated: With an all Japanese plan (i.e. totally made in Japan) as a pivot. we are selecting a final model. In any case, we hope to get US cooperation in view of the Japan-US Security Pact and particularly from the standpoint of interoperability. Defense and trade should be discussed separately. JAPAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL. 5/30/87, p.18.
The last statement, about the separability of defense and trade, is the centerpiece of the Japanese argument. Indeed, the issues must be kept separate to support their position. To look at them together makes the relationship between the two nations clearly ludicrous. That the world's largest debtor should continue to underwrite the defense of the world's largest creditor is something that has never happened before in man's history. Never.
THE JAPAN LAWLETTER, April 1987. By Roderick Seeman
 |
| Lt General HIdeyuki Yoshioka of TRDI |
Osamu Kaihara, former secretary general of the National Defense Council (now the Cabinet Security Affairs Office.)
In the opinion of this publication Japan has decided that it is absolutely necessary to build fighter manufacturing capability in Japan. The reason for this we do not venture, but arguments of domestic production in terms of cost efficiency are not convincing. As we have stated in our past few issues, we believe that the reason for the constant delay in the selection of the next generation support fighter for Japan, the FSX, is that the Japanese government has been waiting for a period of political calm between the US and Japan before it announces what it really wants to do--despite PR to the contrary--select an all Japanese made aircraft. At a time when the Japanese government has just announced a massive "go-it-alone" space program for Japan, that it would seek its own development of jet aircraft seems consistent policy making. In both industries the Japanese piggybacked their way to advanced technologies on the back of the Americans. The Americans made their technologies available to the Japanese, but many, including this writer, doubt whether the Japanese would return the favor to the Americans. Indeed the Japanese have announced that they will not provide certain rocket technologies to McDonnel Douglas, and are closing out all foreign firms from participation in their TRON computer operating system.
In terms of Japanese willingness to share their technology, after having developed their own aircraft industry from American licenses, the following, from Japan's leading business daily may be of interest:
Behind this attitude is the confidence of the Japanese aircraft manufacturers that they can beat the Americans in the latest technologies required for the FSX such as stealth technologies and CCV technologies (permitting aircraft to turn or rise or fall without banking). The idea is to limit American participation to engines or some devices to be installed. The view is strongly held that "the Self Defense Agency itself is leaning in this direction"...What they are thinking is that officially ( superficially--tatemae) "the Americans will develop the plane and the Japanese will build it." In reality however Japan will develop it, but for purposes of appearance license royalties will be paid to the Americans. In this way the trade problems can be avoided. In that case however, the stealth and CCV technologies will belong to the Americans. In that case, the Japanese are warning (keikai) "the real objective of the Americans is to get their hands on the latest technologies necessary for their next generation fighters, the ATF (Advanced Technology Fighter), which is currently under development."
NIHON KEIZAI. 6/1/87, p.35.
Why are the Japanese alarmed at the Americans getting their hands on technologies they plan to use in their FSX? They have certainly received massive amounts of technology from the Americans at bargain basement prices.
There a number of areas where tne Japanese claim to be ahead of the Americans:
---First of all is in composite materials, such as carbon fibers, which would be an essential element in stealth technologies. Fuji Heavy Industries has already reportedly installed numerically controlled laminators and filament winders at its aircraft factories in anticipation of the project. The Japanese note that even the composite materials used in the F-15, built by McDonnell Douglas, are made under a license from Japanese firms. Moreover, 40$ of the weight of the FSX aircraft is expected to be made from such composites.
---The Japanese also claim to be at least five years ahead of the US in active phased array radars, which the US plans to install in its Advanced Technology Radar, which is now under development.
---In April 1987 the Japanese Self Defense Agency installed the radar for a year of testing in its C-l aircraft. The Agency has also installed a new electronic control system in its F-15 aircraft.
---In conjunction with Mitsubishi Electric the Defense Agency has recently developed a super LSI chip for jet fighters which will be able to make one million calculations per second, even under the massive stress conditions found in jet aircraft. It plans to install the chips in jet fighters in 1988 for testing purposes and will certainly use them in the FSX fighter. It claims that the US is also working on a similar chip, but it is still under development.
In preparation for the development of the FSX aircraft, Japan has also entered upon a major renovation effort for its F4EJ Phantom jets. The renovation effort aims at improving look-down radar, and antiship missile capabilities. Specifically, improvements will be made in: fire control systems, missiles, flying capabilities, enemy detection, and radar warning, Although many electronic devices will be produced under license from the US, system development will be totally handled by the Japanese. Indeed, the Americans are pressing the Japanese to buy entirely new planes instead of making expensive renovations. Renovations are expected to cost 1.8 billion yen per plane for 100 planes. But as the Japanese note:
Air force experts emphasize that "major renovations are exactly the same as making an entirely new system." Thus it can be said that the side benefit of renovating the F4EJ is technological development, not just military applications, is important indeed. NIKKEI SANGYO 7/27/87 p.3.
In fact, the most commonly used argument by the Japanese industry, in pushing their case for totally Japanese development of the FSX (in addition to the simple argument that because its defense we should only build it ourselves) is the opportunity this would present to develop new advanced technologies--in short another targeted high technology industry at government expense. In fact, according to the 110 corporate member Japan Weapons Industry Association "We would like to have this plane made in Japan so that the technology will stay in Japan." (NIKKAN KOGYO. 6/3/87, p.9)
It is only because some members of the US government have made it a trade issue that the Japanese have delayed the decision. It is only because the US trade deficit with Japan has not improved, despite a myriad of market opening packages and a massive strengthening of the yen, that the Americans have raised the issue as a test case of Japan's market opening policy. In the case of currency revaluations and market opening packages, a myriad of small factors can and have been used to obscure why there has been no improvement in the trade statistics. With respect to these jet fighters however, the issue is clear. American fighter planes are premier examples of American high technology. and the Japanese have nothing to match them. Here Americans can offer a superior product at a cheaper price (which the Japanese use to justify their trade surpluses) and as a big ticket item they could make a big dent in America's trade deficit. But as is the usual case when high technology is involved and Americans have superior products, whether it be supercomputers, space programs or airplanes, the Japanese make a mighty exception to the principles of free trade upon which its own economy has flourished (the better product at the cheaper price wins). A nation with minimal defense spending, which has flourished under a defense umbrella paid for by the American government, will not purchase defense products from the Americans, by insisting on either producing them in Japan under license or, more recently, works to develop competing products which are often then sold at cheaper prices to undercut the American firms--witness supercomputers. The Toshiba scandal also fits in perfectly with these types of commercial practices.
As mentioned at the outset, the Japanese manufacturers have somehow obtained the specifications desired by the Defense Agency. American competitors have not been so lucky. Yet they have been charged with deficiencies for not meeting specifications that are not shown to them. Indeed, what limited specifications they have seen came only after substantial pressure from the US government that American manufacturers be given a chance. Yet the feeling of the American participants at a seminar to let them submit competing proposals, was that the entire effort was only a new procedure--the decision had already been made. Indeed, according to US military experts, the specifications for the new plane do not meet the defense needs expected of Japan--to counteract in a defensive manner, a Soviet entry into Japan. In fact, the US military has warned Japan. (according to the JAPAN TIMES) that the proposed plane would violate Japan's constitution, permitting military spending only peaceful or defensive purposes. In other words, the proposed plane goes beyond defensive purposes.
In the most recent case the final decision has been delayed to August or September 1987, a full year delay in making the decision. A number of missions from the US government and industry have visited Japan, pushing their case for buying American. Even Secretary of Defense Weinberger visited Japan in late June 1987 primarily to push the case. Representatives of the American industry have visited their Japanese counterparts repeatedly to also push for joint development project to improve on existing American planes. They note that Japan plans to produce only about 100 of the planes at a rate of about 10 per year. The Japanese could not possibly produce the planes at rates cheaper than in the US where they are mass-produced. The appreciation of the yen has made American products even more competitive. But the Japanese consortium (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. Fuji Heavy Industries, Kawasaki Heavy Industries. Ishikawajima Harima Heavy Industries and Mitsubishi Electric Corp) still insist that they can produce the planes cheaper at 5-6 billion yen. Of course in a government financed project, backed a highly supportive and not very open government, means can be found to find additional funds for this group, Japan's core military industrial complex, via payments on other projects for example. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, the prime contractor, has proposed that American participation be limited to only wind-tunnel testing and computer simulation. At a minimum the Americans want joint development of a new plane centered around an existing American plane. But according to an official of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries:
This is a matter of defense, so domestic development is the first priority and joint development under Japan's control is the second. JAPAN TIMES, 6/26/87, p.6.
The FSX plane is to replace the F-l support fighters the Japanese military have. The Japanese have only 75 of the planes and another 93 F-15 fighters produced under license from McDonnell Douglas. This shows the limited size of the Japanese market, making production of an airplane for only the Japanese market highly uneconomical, but only if it is limited te the Japanese market. Indeed some newspapers note that the Ministry of Finance and the Foreign Ministry are opposed to independent development in Japan as the massive expense is not worth spending on only 100 planes.
But it appears that the Japanese have already made their decision and are only waiting for the most opportune moment to spring it on the Americans:
The Defense Agency plans to hold a final round of consultations with the US Department of Defense in August before the government makes a final decision on the next support fighter for the Air Self Defense Forces agency sources revealed Sunday...The panel, headed by Naoaki Murata, the counselor at the secretariat of the Defense Agency director general. is reportedly leaning toward developing an entirely new fighter instead of buying an existing US model. "It is essential that we don't give the American side cause for undue optimism," one official in charge of the FSX project said. JAPAN TIMES. 7/20/87, p.2)
In a May 1987 meeting with Secretary of Defense Weinberger, Japanese Diet member Joji Omura, former Director General of the Self Defense Agency stated: With an all Japanese plan (i.e. totally made in Japan) as a pivot. we are selecting a final model. In any case, we hope to get US cooperation in view of the Japan-US Security Pact and particularly from the standpoint of interoperability. Defense and trade should be discussed separately. JAPAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL. 5/30/87, p.18.
The last statement, about the separability of defense and trade, is the centerpiece of the Japanese argument. Indeed, the issues must be kept separate to support their position. To look at them together makes the relationship between the two nations clearly ludicrous. That the world's largest debtor should continue to underwrite the defense of the world's largest creditor is something that has never happened before in man's history. Never.
THE JAPAN LAWLETTER, April 1987. By Roderick Seeman
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