The
relations between the U.S. and Pakistan, despite the numerous attempts
to revive them, are falling apart. Therefore, establishing close
cooperation with Pakistan will give Russia a real chance to gain a
foothold in Central and South Asia. In addition, Russia will be able to
access the Indian Ocean, and make the U.S. troops in Afghanistan
directly dependent on its logistics.
The
constant and rude attempts of the United States to interfere in the
internal affairs of a nuclear power raise overt anger in this country at
all levels. An opinion poll conducted by Pew Research Center (USA) in
the beginning of this year showed that 74 percent of Pakistanis view the
U.S. as an "enemy." Not that long ago, the whole country was discussing
the scandal connected with the resignation of the Pakistani ambassador
to the United States. Husain Haqqani wrote a secret letter, in which he
asked for help in preventing a military coup, which was allegedly
plotted in Pakistan, and promised certain concessions in return.
But even
this pro-American official said last week that the goals and priorities
of the two countries would not be the same in near future. That is why,
he said, the USA and Pakistan should give up their attempts to build a
partnership and pay attention to their own interests instead. "If in 65
years we haven't been able to find sufficient common reasons to live
together ... It may be better to find friendship outside the family
ties," Haqqani told.
The
brazen drone bombings of the Pakistani territory, the uncoordinated
military operation to destroy Osama bin Laden, the accusations of
supplying materials for Iran's nuclear program have prompted Pakistan to
seek cooperation with Russia. A special envoy of the President of
Russia visited Pakistan in May 2012. Putin himself accepted the
invitation to come to Pakistan for a bilateral meeting in Islamabad,
prior to the IV quadrilateral meeting on Afghanistan. The meeting is to
be held in Islamabad on 26-27 September 2012 with the participation of
Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Pakistan and Russia. A new strategic
partnership is brewing in the region.
Pakistan
was one of three countries that officially recognized the power of
Taliban movement in Afghanistan. There is no logic in the decision of
the USA to make Pakistan its ally after 9/11. Indeed, Afghanistan and
Pakistan are two brotherly nations. Ten billion dollars that the States
invested in Pakistan's economy during ten years are not enough to make
the country "sell and destroy itself," as Minister of Science and
Technology Azam Khan Swati said.
In case
of partnership with Pakistan, Russia could take control of the logistics
of the U.S. military bases in Afghanistan. Russia already controls the
Northern Distribution Network in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan that border
on Afghanistan. If we add the southern routes from Karachi to Chaman and
Torkham, then all deliveries will have to be coordinated through the
Russian-Pakistani alliance.
If this
scenario becomes reality, Russia will obtain enormous leverage over the
United States. In one fell swoop, it will remove the Mideastern loop,
which can not be tightened today just because of Iran. What is more,
Russia will receive access to the Indian Ocean through the Arabian Sea
and the ports of Gwadar or Karachi and then to the Strait of Hormuz,
bypassing the alliance with Iran, which is not beneficial for Russia
now.
In
addition, Pakistan has been an observer at the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation
Organization - a regional international organization, founded in 2001
by the leaders of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and
Uzbekistan) since 2005. One could go further on the geopolitical level,
and make the country a permanent member of the SCO. Given that
Afghanistan, India and Iran also look for partnerships in the bloc, one
should welcome them as members too. The U.S. would thus face a dilemma:
either give away South Asia for the SCO (to Russia and China that is) or
try to retain the region at all costs.
With
Pakistan's help, Russia would be able to control terrorist activities in
Central Asia. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) is the largest
Islamist political organization in Central Asia. It is present in
Afghanistan on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistan border, and Pakistan's
role could be crucial in the fight against this menace.
The Commander of Pakistan Air Force, Air Marshal Tahir Rafique Butt, visited Russia in August. He told Thenews.com.pk portal
that "it was a great visit with a positive result, and we can expect
closer cooperation with Russia in the field of defense, particularly air
defense." According to experts, Pakistan is interested in buying Mi-35
attack helicopters, Mi-17 transport helicopters, engines for JF-17
program, missile defense systems, submarines and so on.
Russia
made another thoughtful decision as it offered Pakistan help in solving
the country's energy crisis. Gazprom is ready to invest in
Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline, rather than in the risky TAPI
(Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India), which has the support of the
United States. In addition, Russia's Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Factory
(MMK), with 75 percent of shares, will help expand the capabilities of
Pakistan Steel Mills from 1 million to 3 million tons of production a
year. Pakistan, in turn, can provide access to mineral resources in
Balochistan and the Thar coal deposit.
It is
important to remember that Pakistan sits on the crossroads of east to
west and north to south trade corridors, including the new Silk Road
Project in South Asia, which the Americans cherish. Russia needs to
firmly define its economic priorities and defend them strongly. If the
resources are not needed, then one should keep the transportation
routes of those resources under control. A mega breakthrough is possible
in the future: the "Persian Gulf - Bering Strait" railroad. The road
will cross the Trans-Siberian Railway, the Turksib and the Trans-Asian
Railway from China to Europe.
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