Saturday, October 18, 2014

Does, the TTP commanders pledge of allegiance to ISIS matter to Pakistan? A "Pakistan Defence" forum analysis.

Much hype is being created over a handful of disgruntled TTP commander's apparent pledge of allegiance to ISIS in Pakistani media these days. We would like to clarify a few things in this debate.

1: TTP's back has been broken and it no longer exists as a unified umbrella entity with a singular Command & Control structure, for it has fragmented. Its operational capabilities have been decimated and its nerve centers destroyed.

2: Terrorist leaders are inherently oblivious of sharing power, therefore if some terrorist commanders are pledging allegiance to ISIS, it should be seen as a sign of desperation to ride the ISIS bandwagon. They will get off that bandwagon as quickly as they boarded it, when the ISIS is finally defeated.

3: TTP commander's allegiance to ISIS is also an admission on their behalf that their own narrative has been defeated by the people of Pakistan.

4: Their allegiance to ISIS offers no tactical utility in the battlefield for TTP. Their ideological realignment will only accelerate the process of structural rot and operational decay.

5: TTP's allegiance to ISIS is going to place them firmly in the firing scopes of Ayman Al Zawahiri's gang known as Al-Qaeda, which will further complicate its footprint in the region by isolating its intra terrorist network contacts. ISIS simply doesn't have any regional apparatus capable of replacing Al-Qaeda's expertise in the areas of for example IED manufacturing, brainwashing and propaganda.

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