Analysis: End of year surge for Chengdu J-20 fighter programme

In November and December 2014 two additional prototypes of the Chengdu Aircraft Corporation's (CAC) J-20 fifth-generation fighter emerged, advancing its development towards a possible initial operational capability (IOC) of 2017-18.

A view of the latest J-20 prototype, 2015, which made its maiden flight from the CAC airfield on 18 December. (Chinese internet).

The J-20 programme currently features six known prototypes. Two are early technology development articles (serial numbers 2001 and 2002) that emerged in 2009 and 2010, while four are modified versions closer to operational prototypes (serial numbers 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2015) that all emerged in 2014.

No prototype numbered 2014 has yet to appear and may not, given the traditional Chinese view that four is an unlucky number.

Chinese aircraft spotters responsible for early internet photos report that the latest J-20 prototype, 2015, made its maiden flight from the CAC airfield on 18 December.

hinese aircraft spotters responsible for early internet photos report that the latest prototypes, 2013 and 2015, made their maiden flights from the CAC airfield on 29 November and 18 December 2014 respectively.

Both have most of the refinements seen on aircraft 2011, which emerged in February 2014: cropped canards and vertical stabilisers, a modified air intake, modified wing leading-edge extensions, and a new electro-optical targeting system (EOTS) under the nose.

However, 2013 and 2015 lack the nose-mounted pitot tubes that featured on the earlier prototypes. In addition, number 2015 has longer and sharper-shaped rear-fuselage horizontal strakes. Although this aft surface does not appear to be movable, it may contribute to aircraft stability, as a similar - though movable - surface did for the Grumman X-29 technology demonstrator.

A detail of the strakes on the latest J-20 prototype, 2015. (Chinese internet).

Early internet-sourced images have also emerged of the J-20's retractable refuelling probe, placed on the upper starboard of the nose. The development status of an indigenous Chinese turbofan for the J-20, often referred to as the WS-15, remains unknown. There is speculation that early J-20 examples may use a version of the Russian Saturn AL-31 turbofan.

In April 2014 an Asian government source told IHS Jane's that China would have 24 J-20s by 2020, which if realised, could constitute a first operational regiment. This would indicate that IOC may occur in the 2017-18 timeframe.

Source: Janes

Pakistan Air Force Going To Induct 5th Gen. Stealth Fighter Before IAF Does!

An article in the People’s Daily at the end of last month did little to clarify matters. The article referred to the J-31 as a fourth-generation stealth fighter, while also saying that is comparable to the U.S.’ F-35 fighter jets. The report first said that it would be exported abroad as a competitor to the F-35, before discussing the possibility that it will be China’s next carrier-borne fighter.

“Experts predict that the J-31 will make rapid inroads in the international market in the future, and will undoubtedly steal the limelight from the F-35,” the People’s Daily report said, noting also that competition to sell the fighter jets to international customers was “becoming a new variable in the Sino-US strategic game.”
The report added that, “The J-31, with its main target as the export market, represents a serious threat to U.S. arms manufacturers.” Later in the same article, however, People’s Daily noted that the plane’s landing gear was built to sustain the impact of landing on a carrier better than the current J-15s, and therefore might be used as China’s future carrier-based jet.
One possibility is that China is building both a domestic and export version of the aircraft. Some foreign news outlets have indeed said that China may sell a version of the aircraft abroad under the name F-60, while maintaining a fleet of domestic J-31s for the PLA.
With so little known about the J-31, it’s hard to gauge how credible China’s claims are that the J-31 is a low-cost alternative to the F-35. In a report in Defense News last August, shortly after the first few images of the plane surfaced, Project 2049 Institute’s Robert Cliff dismissed the notion that the J-31 would pose a serious threat to the F-35 in terms of overseas sales.
““India won’t buy it. Russia won’t buy it,” Cliff noted, adding: “That pretty much leaves countries like Pakistan, Brazil, some Middle East countries, none of whom [the U.S. is] likely to sell the F-35 to anytime this decade or next.”
He also said that he did not believe Saudi Arabia was interested in the plane.
Pakistan is perhaps the most likely foreign purchaser of the fighter. Pakistan and China previously jointly developed the JF-17 Thunder advanced fighter, although only Islamabad has ended up purchasing the jet thus far. This week Pakistani officials called on China to increase cooperation in the area of defense production. Beijing has long helped Islamabad acquire the necessary knowledge and expertise to develop a more advanced domestic defense industry.

Rafale Can Be Shot Down Like 'Mosquitoes by Chinese-Made Flankers': Russian Envoy

Indirectly expressing his country's surprise over the Indian Government and its defence establishment's decision to go ahead with its reported plan to buy 126 Rafale combat aircraft from France, Russia's Ambassador to India, Alexander M. Kadakin, said the Dassault Aviation-manufactured fighter aircraft could be shot down like a mosquito by a Chinese-manufactured or produced Sukhoi jet should there ever be a conflict in the neighbourhood.

 

Ambassador Kadakin, who was attending an interaction between Russian and Indian journalists in the national capital yesterday, said, "We (Russia) are still very surprised that Rafale is being bought, because if the Rafale is intended to oppose Pakistani or Chinese planes, then the Sukhoi which the Chinese produce, or mobilizes, but which is only 50 percent of the Sukhoi which you (India) produce, then even for the Chinese Sukhoi, these Rafales will be like mosquitoes on an August night. They will be shot down like mosquitoes. That's why I don't understand why...."

Rafale had won the bid to supply the Indian Air Force with 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft. In July this year, Indian media reported that the Ministry of Defence is continuing its final negotiations for acquiring these aircraft for almost USD 20 billion.

The negotiations, which have been protracted and complex, are reportedly at a final stage, with over 50 per cent of the final contract as well as the inter-governmental agreement, and all that reportedly remains is for the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) to give its political approval for the inking of the contract. Ambassador Kadakin, however, said that he or the Russian Government must not be misunderstood on the issue.

"There were some reports about difficulties. Of course, if you mobilize funds to buy Rafales, which has become from 10 million U.S. dollars to 23 million U.S. dollars (in terms of cost), then it is another story. That is a story of mobilizing finance and resources. But it doesn't have to affect the (sale or purchase of) fifth generation aircrafts," he said.

"The fifth generation aircraft, work is going according to schedule, and there were no problems reported about the designing work which carried out now by Indian and Russian scientists. Work is going according to schedule, and there were no complaints. There were some negotiations about the share of designing work. We understand India has already accumulated good experience in designing aircrafts, and that is why we were thinking of doing it fifty-fifty. But this has to be now specified and elaborated on paper because there are certain fields of aircraft building industry where India is not yet ready completely to take up responsibility for designing it. This can be done jointly by Indian and Russian designers and engineers," Ambassador Kadakin added.

Taking an apparent dig at New Delhi's reported shift towards acquiring weapons from the United States, Ambassador Kadakin said, "When people start speculating around world, U.S. their technology, and that there would be much more military supplies, all that, you understand, it is all just hullabaloo, it's all hype, it's not much technology coming from them (U.S.) to India. Or, should that be corrected, zero technology is coming from U.S to India."

He took pains to highlight Russia's contribution to India's defence sector over the years. "At the same time, India is building Russian Sukhoi 30s in Pune, India is producing the world's best cruise missile Brahmos, India is navigating in the open waters in nuclear powered submarines (Akula-II class). India is building Kudankulam with our help. These are the real facts, and wrong are those doomsayers," the Russian envoy said.

Once the project is finalized, the first 18 jets are to be delivered to IAF within 36-48 months, while the rest 108 will be manufactured by HAL with transfer of technology over the next seven years. In July, then British Foreign Secretary William Hague lobbied hard for the Eurofighter Typhoon, which is backed by UK, Germany, Spain and Italy, in his meetings with the Narendra Modi Government. Germany is also learnt to have renewed the push for Typhoons.

The U.S. lobby reportedly still hopes that either the F/A-18 'Super Hornet' or the F-16 'Super Viper' can fly back into the MMRCA competition. But the Indian defence establishment is quite clear there can be "no comebacks" in the ongoing MMRCA project. With IAF down to 34 fighter squadrons, when at least 44 are required, IAF has identified the MMRCA project as its "topmost priority" for the NDA Government.

The event was organized at the Press Club of India. The club's president, Anand Sahay, used the opportunity of the interaction to highlight the need for a greater exchange of views between journalists and media houses of the two nations. He said that media of both countries must play significant roles in a wide and broad range of spheres, and not just restrict themselves to geo-political or strategic coverage.

India Has No Plan To Join Or Buy The US-led Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) Programme

India has no plans as of now to either join the US-led joint strike fighter (JSF) programme or buy the F-35 `Lightning-II' fifth-generation fighter aircraft (FGFA) when it finally becomes operational. "We cannot have two types of FGFA. We have already launched preliminary work for our FGFA after inking the $295 million preliminary design contract (PDC) with Russia last month,'' said a top defence ministry official on Friday. 

This comes in the wake of comments made by a top Pentagon official, undersecretary of defence for acquisition, technology and logistics Ashton Carter, in Washington that the US was open to Indian participation in its JSF project. Interestingly, the comments came during a function where an aggressive sales pitch was made for India to select either the American F/A-18 `Super Hornet' ( Boeing) or F-16 `Falcon' ( Lockheed Martin) over their European rivals in the ongoing IAF's medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) contest. 

The other 4.5-generation fighters in the hotly-contested race to bag the $10.4 billion MMRCA project, under which 18 jets will be bought off-the-shelf and another 108 will be manufactured in India under transfer of technology, are Eurofighter Typhoon, Swedish Gripen (Saab), French Rafale (Dassault) and Russian MiG-35 (United Aircraft Corporation). The IAF force matrix for the coming years revolves around the 270 Sukhoi-30MKIs contracted from Russia for around $12 billion, the 126 MMRCA and 120 indigenous Tejas Light Combat Aircraft, apart from upgraded MiG-29s and Mirage-2000s. In the decades ahead, the advanced stealth FGFA to be developed with Russia will be the mainstay of India's combat fleet. "Our FGFA will be cheaper than the F-35. Moreover, the intellectual property rights of the FGFA will equally and jointly vest on both India and Russia, with full access to the source code and the like,'' said another senior official. 

With a potent mix of super-manoeuvrability and supersonic cruising ability, the "swing-role'' FGFA will of course not come cheap. The cost of designing, infrastructure build-up, prototype development and flight testing has been pegged at around $11 billion, with India and Russia chipping in with $5.5 billion each. Over and above this, each of the 250-300 FGFA India hopes to begin inducting from 2020 onwards will cost around $100 million each. In all, India will spend upwards of $35 billion over the next two decades in its biggest-ever defence project till now. 

The Indian FGFA will primarily be based on the single-seater Sukhoi T-50, the prototype of which is already flying in Russia, but will include a twin-seater version and a more powerful engine with greater thrust. "Its complete design will be frozen by the end of the 18-month PDC. Six to seven of its prototypes should be flying by 2017. After that, there will be 2,500 hours of flight-testing over 25 months before the series production begins in 2019,'' he said.

Russia Seeks To Sell PAK-FA Stealth Fighter Jets To S. Korea

Russia has decided to enter Korea’s advanced jet acquisition project, which would be the biggest arms-procurement deal ever in the country, a defense official said Wednesday. 

“Russian aircraft manufacturer Sukhoi expressed its intent to compete in the fighter jet procurement project early this year,” Col. Wi Jong-seong of the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) said. 

He said Sukhoi’s T-50 PAK-FA will vie with the F-15SE Silent Eagle from Boeing, the F-35 Lightning II f4rom Lockheed Martin and the Eurofighter Typhoon from the European Aeronautic Defense and Space Company (EADS). 

The T-50 PAK-FA and the F-35 Lightning II are fifth generation stealth fighters, while the remaining two are fourth generation jets with limited stealth capabilities. 

Earlier in the day, DAPA spokesman Son Hyeong-yeong announced that his agency has eased the criteria to allow more companies to bid for the FX-III project, under which Korea will purchase 60 high-end fighters with a budget of 8.29 trillion won ($7.86 billion). 

“We will set up strategies that will allow for the transfer of core technology and that will encourage competition,” he said. 

Insiders, however, say both the T-50 PAK-FA and Eurofighter Typhoon have a little chance in winning the bid as Korea’s alliance with the United States will be a decisive factor in the race. 

They say EADS offered a better deal in Korea’s last jet acquisition project in 2008 than its American competitor Boeing, but lost the bid due largely to political decisions. 

Boeing and Lockheed Martin, two of the largest defense contractors in the United States, say they have had a long industrial partnership with Korea and their fighters offer high compatibility with its existing weapons systems. 

EADS recently announced that it will offer Korea the chance to assemble and partly manufacture Eurofighter Typhoons in Korea in an apparent bid not to lose the FX-race again. 

“The first 10 deliveries will be assembled in Europe, while the next 24 will be built with components manufactured in Korea,” Erwin Obermeier, a senior advisor of export projects at EADS said, adding that the remainder will be assembled here. 

He also downplayed concerns over compatibility, saying all Korean fighters and Eurofighters are built to be inter-operable in the NATO environment. 

Korea has purchased 60 F-15s from Boeing, which won both the FX-I and II projects in 2002 and 2008 

Meanwhile, DAPA announced that Korea will spend 1.84 trillion won to acquire 36 attack helicopters from overseas. Col. Tan Myeong-hoon of DAPA said the AH-1W SuperCobra by Bell and AH-64D Block III from Boeing, will compete with the EC-665 Tiger from Eurocopter of France and the T-129 from Turkey. 

The winners of the FX-III and the attack helicopter bids will be announced in October next year.

3D Modeling of Sukhoi T-50 PAK-FA Fifth Generation Stealth Fighter Aircraft