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Indian Supersonic Interceptor Missile Test Successful | Wheeler Island on May 15, 2016

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India, In its effort to have a full fledged multi-layer Ballistic Missile Defence system, on Sunday successfully test-fired its supersonic interceptor missile, capable of destroying any incoming hostile ballistic missile, from a integrated test range Wheeler Island, off Odisha coast. This project still in developmental phases and the test named "AAD-06".

"The test conducted to validate various parameters of the interceptor in flight mode has been successful," DRDO sources said.

Interceptor missiles are designed to take over and collide with the incoming Ballistic Missiles of hostile power through ballistic trajectory, and ultimately explode up in the atmosphere before reaching its intended targets.

Pakistan, the arch rival of India, paid grave concerns over the test. And vows to take this issue in the global forums.

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North Korea Tested It's First Thermonuclear Device (Hydrogen Bomb)

North Korea declared that it has successfully tested a thermonuclear device for first time in an underground test facility; basically called a hydrogen bomb - a more powerful weapon than an atomic bomb. This declaration of detonation of Hydrogen Bomb last Tuesday ( January 6, 2016) creates world condemnation about this state's arrogance about ignoring world community's anger.

Quake magnitudes detected near the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test range of North Korean Nuke Test site. Photo: BBC

A quake magnitude of 5.1 detected just near the N. Korea's nuke test site in the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test range by the USGS. Hours after the test North Korean state TV announcement cleared that the isolated communist state tested its first H-bomb, which it calls "the H-bomb of justice". Though Analysts & experts are skeptical whether it's a full-scale thermonuclear device or not, North Korean military sources advice the media that it was a "miniaturized H-bomb".

A picture from North Korean state TV showing leader Kim Jong-un signing the document for the hydrogen bomb test. Photo: BBC

On October 9, 2006, North Korea tested its first atomic device in a site of Punggye-ri Nuclear Test range, Kilju County. After that in 25 May, 2009 & 12 February, 2013 N. Korea tested another two low-yield devices in the same test-range. Those two tests was of, respectively, 2.95 & 6-7 kilotons of TNT strength.

China Protests Against Billion Dollar US Arms Sales to Taiwan

China has summoned a senior U.S. envoy to protest Washington's announcement that it is selling two warships to Taiwan as part of a $1.83 billion arms deal. A vice foreign minister made “solemn representations” with the United States charge d'affaires regarding the sale, according to a statement on the foreign ministry's website on Thursday.

Taiwanese Armed Forces. 

The Obama administration announced the sale on Wednesday, drawing an immediate rebuke and threats of retaliation from Taipei's rival Beijing. The arms package is the first offered by the U.S. to the country in four years. Even before its announcement, Beijing, which regards Taiwan as part of its territory, demanded it be scrapped to avoid harming relations across the Taiwan Strait and between China and the U.S.

In a statement to Al Jazeera, a Pentagon spokesperson said, “U.S. arms sales to Taiwan are guided by the Taiwan Relations Act and based on an assessment of Taiwan's defense needs.” That was followed by a formal diplomatic protest late Wednesday, although at a lower level than in previous such instances. “China resolutely opposes the sale of weapons to Taiwan by the U.S.,” Vice Foreign Minister Zheng Zeguang said in a meeting with Washington's second-highest ranking diplomat in Beijing.

“In order to safeguard the nation's interests, the Chinese side has decided to take necessary measures, including the imposition of sanctions against companies participating in the arms sale to Taiwan,” Zheng said, according to a statement posted on the ministry's website.

US Navy 100707-N-0641S-215 SS Ford (FFG 54) departs Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam to support Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) 2010 exercises.

Such sanctions have been threatened in the past, although there's no evidence they've had any meaningful effect. American and European Union companies are banned from selling military technology to China, and Chinese companies have extensive links with major overseas firms that often have weapon-making divisions.

A U.S. Embassy spokesman, speaking on routine condition of anonymity, declined to comment on the meeting, saying, “We don't get into the content of our diplomatic discussions.” The U.S. maintained there's no need for it to hurt the relationship, which has also been strained by China's island-building in the South China Sea and alleged cybertheft.

The administration notified Congress that the proposed arms package includes two decommissioned U.S. Navy frigates, anti-tank missiles, amphibious assault vehicles and Stinger surface-to-air missiles. There's also support for Taiwan's capabilities in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance and a weapons system to defend against anti-ship missiles.

Congress has 30 days to review the sale, but it's unlikely to raise objections. There's been mounting bipartisan concern that Taiwan is inadequately armed to defend itself against an increasingly powerful mainland China, and the sale comes a year after Congress passed the Naval Transfer Act authorizing the sale of up to four Perry-class frigates to Taiwan in December 2014.

The administration has announced more than $12 billion in arms sales to Taiwan since 2010, but none since $5.9 billion in sales in September 2011 that included upgrades for Taiwan's F-16 fighter jets. That drew a high-level diplomatic protest from Beijing, which suspended some military exchanges with the United States. It did not seriously impair ties. In the meantime, President Barack Obama has sought greater cooperation with China, and the two sides have increased military exchanges to reduce the risk of conflict.

State Department spokesman John Kirby said the U.S. was in contact with both Taiwan and China about the sale, which he said was consistent with U.S. support for Taiwan's ability to defend itself under the Taiwan Relations Act. Analysts and Congressional sources believe the sale process was held up by the administration's desire to maintain stable working relations with China, an increasingly powerful strategic rival but also a vital economic partner as the world's second-largest economy. Most recently the Obama administration has been working with Beijing to forge a landmark global climate agreement that was sealed on Saturday.

US-Japan $1.2B RQ-4 Global Hawk Deal Finalized

The US Department of State has approved a potential sale of three Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk unmanned surveillance systems to Japan.

The Defense Security Cooperation Agency notified Congress of the possible foreign military sale on Nov. 19, according to a DSCA statement.

The deal for three Block 30 Global Hawk remotely piloted aircraft, including three Enhanced Integrated Sensor Suites and 16 navigation systems, is worth up to US $1.2 billion.

Japan has been focused on building up its surveillance assets in the region as neighboring China has become increasingly aggressive. Japan's Ministry of Defense officially decided to procure the Global Hawk, as well as Boeing's V-22 Osprey and Northrop's E-2D Hawkeye command and control aircraft, in 2014.

Japan chose the Global Hawk over the Guardian ER design by General Atomics for the country's Air Self Defense Force.

"The proposed sale of the RQ-4 will significantly enhance Japan's intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities and help ensure that Japan is able to continue to monitor and deter regional threats," according to the statement. "The Japan Air Self Defense Force (JASDF) will have no difficulty absorbing these systems into its armed forces."

In the statement, DSCA touted the sale as strengthening the US-Japanese alliance at a time of growing tensions over China's moves in the South China Sea.

"This proposed sale will contribute to the foreign policy and national security of the United States," the statement reads. "Japan is one of the major political and economic powers in East Asia and the Western Pacific and a key partner of the United States in ensuring regional peace and stability."

P&W And GE Competing For Sixth-Generation Fighter Engine

Pratt & Whitney and General Electric’s proposals for the next phase of the US Air Force’s sixth-generation fighter engine development effort are due tomorrow, with the two sides anticipating sole-source contract awards in June or July of 2016.

The Adaptive Engine Transition Programme (AETP) is the next step in the development of a highly efficient and adaptive military engine for combat jets and the five-year effort could be worth as much as $950 million to each team.

The Air Force Research Laboratory has been working with GE and P&W on an adaptive, three-stream engines since 2008 with the ultimate goal of introducing a new engine in the 45,000lb thrust class with 25% to 30% better fuel efficiency. The new sponsor is USAF’s Propulsion Directorate.

P&W's director of advanced programs and technology Jimmy Kenyon says the air force originally anticipated a competition for one “winner takes all” $900 million contract for AETP, but through industry engagement has decided to carry two teams forward instead.

Kenyon says an approximately one-year schedule adjustment has also eliminated much of the overlap between the current Adaptive Engine Technology Development (AETD) effort, which started in 2012 to bring two designs up to a preliminary design review.

P&W's conceptual design of next-gen fighter engine. 

The air force now expects to assemble two competing designs for engine testing before transitioning to a competition in the early 2020s for development of a sixth-generation “F-X” and “F-XX” fighter engine.

“There was a lot of concurrency between what they were doing in AETP and what we were still trying to finish in AETD, the current programme, and that posed a lot of risk,” says Kenyon. “It was going to be a fixed-price contract with a lot risk in it – a $900 million winner-takes-all.

“They’ve since taken a step back, because one of the things the air force is hot on is maintaining a competitive industrial base.”

P&W has been pursuing AETP as a critical bridge between the end of F135 development in 2016 for Lockheed Martin's F-35 and the competition for a sixth-generation aircraft.

The company says its current work on AETD will result in product improvements for the F135, which Kenyon says represent a 5% to 7% fuel savings. This next programme is mostly about positioning for the next big development opportunity, but some components could roll into an F135 mid-live overhaul.

“Now you’re thinking five years into the future and where you need to be [in preparation for the sixth-generation fighter engine competition]. How to get to the end of the five years and be in the best position possible?” he says.

“We have a very successful design and we are projecting to meet all of the performance requirements. We have a lot of experience with the fifth-generation fighters and fifth-generation integration, and we can bring all of that experience to bear.”

Photo Source: FlightGlobal

USAF Denies To Acquire More Fourth Generation Fighters

The US Air Force has denied any plans to purchase another tranche of Lockheed Martin F-16 or Boeing F-15 combat jets following reports it could seek bids for up to 72 new aircraft.

According to comments attributed to a senior US Air Combat Command official at an international fighter conference in London last week, the current Lockheed F-35 procurement plan could prove unaffordable, and another fighter wing of F-15s, F-16s or perhaps even F/A-18s is being considered to supplement the current fleet – which will serve into the 2040s as F-35s are delivered.

The air force is seeking 1,763 F-35As through 2038, and in the interim it intends to modernise and upgrade its F-16s and F-15s with new active electronically scanned array (AESA) radars and electronic warfare systems.

Asked to categorically confirm or deny any new fighter purchase, a spokesman for the service’s acquisition office says: “At this time the air force has no plans to acquire 72 new F-15s or F-16s, although the air force is always looking at options to be prepared for a dynamic global security environment.”

In his final press engagement at the Pentagon on 24 November, outgoing air force acquisition chief Bill LaPlante was dismissive of suggestions that another F-15 or F-16 fighter wing is being sought, but he agrees that the F-35 is difficult to afford.

“That story was news to me,” he quipped. “We’re always struggling to get the production rate as high as we can get it on F-35. That’s as true as saying it’s cold outside. It’s always true.”

The conventional take-off and landing A-model costs just shy of $100 million per aircraft, but LaPlante says the F-35 joint programme office and the Lockheed industry team are trying to reduce that to $85 million as the manufacturing process matures.

The service stopped acquiring fourth-generation F-16s and F-15s many years ago to instead focus on developing and procuring stealthy F-22s and F-35s, but both acquisitions were far more expensive and lengthy than originally planned.

The opportunity to purchase more legacy jets, which have been kept in production through foreign military sales, is closing fast, with the Lockheed F-16 and Boeing F-15 and F/A-18 assembly lines potentially closing before the turn of the decade if no more domestic or foreign orders materialise.

The air force has budgeted for 44 F-35s in fiscal year 2016 and 48 in 2017, and is building toward a production cadence of 60 jets per year by 2018 and then 80 beyond 2020.

India Has "Tactical Nuclear Weapons" (TNW) From The Very Beginning

Recently Pakistan complains that India possessed low-yield Tactical Nuclear Weapons from the very beginning and it tested the first TNW at Pokhran Ranges in 1998 test fire. This allegations come after India heavily complaining to the west against Pakistani TNWs and short-rangr battlefield Nasr (Vangeance-IX) missile systems.

Pakistani Authorities always claiming that they must use this battlefield nukes & Nasr missiles against any Indian aggression into its territories. After Modi's taking over of Delhi's power house Pakistan-India tensions are high and border-skirmishes increases in dangerous level.

China Bans on J-20 Mighty Dragon Export

The Chengdu J-20 is a stealth, twin – engine, fifth generation fighter aircraft which is being produced by the Chengdu Aerospace Corporation for the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF). The J-20’s first appearance was made on 11 January 2011 after which six prototypes were produced with various modifications. The latest two prototypes of the J-20 are equipped with active electronically scanned array radar. Three of the six J-20 prototypes were delivered for test flights in the year 2014.

Chengdu Aircraft Company has produced J-10 and JF-17 for overseas markets, but China has made a decision not to export the J-20 overseas. This news is likely to disappoint the manufacturer of the fighter aircraft. The J-20 is expected to be operational during 2017-2019. China wants to keep the J-20’s high-end military equipment all to itself. The ban on export of the Chengdu J-20 was revealed in an interview with the China’s Phoenix TV news program.

“The export of advanced Chinese military technology is prohibited,” Song said. “This is in order to keep J-20’s fifth-generation technology out of hostile hands.”

The J-20 prototypes are said to be very similar to the Lockheed Martin’s F-22. While in shape, weight and engine power the J-20 resembles the McDonnell Douglas’s F-15C which was designed during the Cold War Era. The J-20’s maximum weight is estimated to be 36 tons.

Suspicions are that China’s J-20 is produced using America’s F-35 data, which was stolen by some Chinese hackers.

“If one day the United States decides to export the F-22, China might consider lifting its ban, as well,” he said.

The reason for the ban according to Song is that if American allies possess F-22s, China’s allies need the J-20s to balance it out.

The J-20’s disadvantage is that China is still not able to build a powerful engine for it. The power of the engine is the same as the F-15C. The engine approaches the thrust of the F-22 only when the afterburner is turned on, but the afterburner can be turned on only for a few minutes because of excess fuel consumption. The J-20 is able to super cruise without an afterburner just like the F-22, Eurofighter and the Gripen.

China has been trying to develop a more powerful WS-15 engine for almost two decades but the date has not been set as to when it’ll be fitted to the J-20 fighter.

On the other hand China plans to export the J-31 fighter to global customers who cannot afford the Lockheed Martin F-35. The J-31 was revealed at the Aviation Industry Corporation of China Exhibition hall on Nov 10 during a pre-show of that week’s airshow China in Zhuhai.

The aircraft is designated with “J” for fighters and “FC” for export. The J-31 was referred to as the FC-31, which meant the FC-31 was ready for export.

Dissecting India's "Second Strike Capabilities": A Threat To The Ocean Ways

The Indian Ocean can be saved from becoming a zone of conflicts if India stops thinking it owns it. If the West encourages New Delhi to build a blue-water navy, it would only be a matter of time before it ends up becoming a nightmare for the West itself. The Indian Ocean ranks as the fifth largest ocean, covering 20 per cent of the water on Earth. It consists of 60 islands owned by different states and has four major waterways — the Strait of Malacca, the Strait of Hormuz, Bab-el Mandeb and the Suez Canal.

 

A nuclear submarine (SSN, SSGN, SSBN) can go stealth for an infinite if there have enough supply and can be a nightmare for the foe ships & other targets.

 Interestingly, the Indian Ocean had never been nuclearised even during the Cold War. The shifting of Indian nuclear weapons capabilities from land to sea, in their deployment against Pakistan and China, could end up initiating a three-party nuclear competition. India is modernizing its navy at a rapid pace, and allocated it a budget of $4.8 billion in 2011. China, on the other hand, is not in a position right now to generate a stir in the contemporary strategic balance in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). India dragged the IOR into an intense arms race by introducing a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, INS Arihant, in 2014; it is also in the process of building two more Ship Submersible Ballistic Nuclear submarines. India now has two platforms, INS Subhadra and INS Suvarna, to launch Dhanush missiles. The Indian Navy also has the ability to launch BrahMos missile, a joint venture between Russia and India, which can carry both conventional and nuclear payloads. In short, India is playing a dangerous game in pursuit of prestige and international recognition in the IOR where confidence-building measures or institutionalized conflict-resolution seem to be totally absent.

In the backdrop of the traditional rivalries in this region, the addition of nuclear-capable submarines in the Indian naval fleet is a serious threat to Pakistan and China. This provocation could force Pakistan and other regional states to launch drives to acquire similar capability, thus initiating an arms race in South Asia. It is not surprising that China is willing to sell eight diesel-electric, and not nuclear, submarines to Pakistan. As stated earlier, South Asia has no institutional mechanism that can be used to deal with confrontational behaviour that regional states may indulge in the IOR. If India is resolute about taking the route of sea-based nuclear strike capability, then it is highly unlikely that any possible escalation could be controlled. Pakistan needs to work on sea-based deterrence as this can provide it with strategic advantages, which could serve many implicit opportunities. The most vulnerable part of the Indian defence is its coastal belt, which the Pakistan Navy can exploit through the element of surprise.

Connecting the "Silk Route" project through Gwadar Port of Pakistan.

During the Cold War, India was not happy about US presence in the IOR. However, China’s presence is the main factor that transformed the dynamic of Indian strategic thinking and today, Indian and US interests are congregating , which has generated a more favourable strategic environment for both countries against China. Regardless of Russian and Chinese opposition, India has offered a foothold to the US in the Indian Ocean by signing a new 10-year Defence Framework Agreement with it.

The Indian approach, which projects China as a potential threat in the IOR, is an exaggerated one. China is more focused in the Pacific Ocean and South China Sea, with trade security its only interest in the IOR. It is still behind India and the US in gaining geographical advantages and maritime power in the IOR. The imaginary Chinese ‘string of pearls strategy’ is playing with the minds of Indian strategists. Last year, in November 2014, after a patrolling Chinese submarine docked in Sri Lanka, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called a cabinet committee to clear an $8billion warships project to counter the Chinese Navy. The US, on the other hand, wants to encircle China via agreements with regional states. Pakistan provides China the best way out to reach the Indian Ocean, near the Persian Gulf.

Under construction Gwader port.

There are chances of a naval arms race emerging if we consider historical Indo-Russian naval cooperation and the current increased exchange of naval collaboration between the US and India. It is up to the global players, especially the US and Russia, to either promote global peace by denying India the acquisition of deadly war munitions like Akula-II or, to sell their weaponry and jeapordise global security.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 4th, 2015.

World no closer to Cold War-style nuclear standoff, Putin tells global media chiefs

Russia’s deployment of 40 additional nuclear ballistic missiles in response to the US military buildup in Europe doesn’t mean the world is at greater risk of a nuclear war, President Vladimir Putin told the heads of global news agencies.

A combination photo shows the Yars land-based mobile missile system and the Abrams tank.

The Russian head of state held a late-night meeting with top executives from 12 foreign news agencies on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Most of the event was held behind closed doors and not recorded.

 

The extra deployment is necessary to protect Russia and is a response to a growing threat from the West, Putin explained as EFE, a Spanish news agency, later quoted him as saying. Pentagon is reportedly considering placing additional American heavy weapons, including artillery, in Europe. Washington says it is needed to protect its NATO allies from an aggressive Russia. 

“Russia is not an aggressor and does not favor increasing the level of tension… but is obliged to respond to Western actions targeting Moscow,” EFE cited Putin as saying, without using direct quotes. The meeting was apparently held under so-called Chatham House rules, where participants’ comments cannot be reported directly without their express permission. 

“The increase in belligerent rhetoric between Russia and the US does not mean the world is at greater risk of nuclear confrontation,” the agency added, summarizing the Russian leader’s response. 

Putin also commented on the seizures of Russian state property in European countries, intended to enforce a Hague court ruling to pay billions of dollars in damages to shareholders of the now-defunct oil giant Yukos. The Russian president said Russia cannot fail to react to the asset seizures, but would not elaborate, saying it was up to lawyers to come up with a solution. 

He added that the arbitration court’s decision to order Russia to pay $50 billion in compensation is based on the European Energy Charter, which Russia has not ratified. It makes the decision unlawful, because the court was acting beyond its jurisdiction, Putin said, according to EFE. 

Commenting on the recent G7 summit in Bavaria and the statement by Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper that Russia was not welcome in the group, Putin implied that Harper would act as instructed by Washington on this issue.

"I don't want to offend anyone, but if the United States says Russia should be returned to the G8, [Canada's] prime minister will change his opinion," Putin told The Canadian Press. 

Putin reiterated his calls for Western powers to pressure the government of Ukraine to stick to its obligations under February’s Minsk peace agreement, a ceasefire deal between Kiev and rebels in the east of the country, which appears to have completely broken down in the past few weeks. The Russian president also said that the government of Petro Poroshenko must stop the economic blockade of the rebels in the east, implement constitutional reform and call local elections in the Lugansk and Donetsk regions, AP reports. 

Putin denied allegations by Kiev and its foreign backers that Moscow is sending troops and weapons to eastern Ukraine. He said that once Kiev stops trying to solve the crisis by force, and the Ukrainian government returns to seeking a political resolution to the crisis, the rebels would no longer need to take up weapons to defend themselves. 

In response to other questions, Putin defended Russia’s right to host the FIFA 2018 World Cup, insisting that the country had won the right to host the event fairly. He said that people claiming that the selection was marred by corruption in FIFA should present the evidence of their allegations. 

Source: RT News

Pakistan's counter against Indian Civil Nuclear deal with US

Islamabad: Pakistan and the US officials will meet on Monday for discussing nuclear issues as a part of the strategic dialogue between the two countries. 

The Pakistani delegation led by Foreign Secretary Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry has already arrived in Washington.Foreign Office Spokesperson Qazi Khalillullah confirmed to Online on Sunday that the Pakistani delegation for nuclear talks with the US left Saturday night for Washington. He however, declined to go into keen details of the talks between the two countries over the key issue. Nevertheless, diplomatic sources on condition of anonymity told Online that the focus of the talks are no doubt non-proliferation but informal and off the media talks on civil-nuclear assistance are to be held aiming to convince the US to ink a deal similar to the one Washington signed with India.

Foreign Secretary Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry is leading senior officials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Strategic Plans Division at the talks. While the US side is being led by RoseEileneGottemoeller, the Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. State Department has already rejected media suggestions that Saudi and Pakistani officials had met recently to discuss nuclear cooperation.

“I’m not sure I would presume that was the topic of discussion, and I don’t think we have concern about it,” the State Department spokesperson told reporters two weeks ago while responding to a question. The 2014 Nuclear Security Summit held in the Hague on March 24 and 25, also witnessed praising of Pakistan nuclear safety by international community including the US state department and President Obama himself.

In 2013, the world started praising the steps Pakistan was taking to make its nuclear program safer.
The sources said that as the safety issue about Pakistan is no more doubted in the world, quite sure of the extraordinary steps taken by Islamabad for safeguarding its nuclear program as a responsible state, so it is right time to address the civil-nuclear deal with a country like US which also fully understand the energy crises of the country. “So in this sense it could be comprehensive talks,” they added.

The talks are part of the strategic dialogue process, which includes six working groups for economy and trade, energy, counter-terrorism and law-enforcement, defense and nuclear non-proliferation, and education, science and technology. The strategic dialogue was delayed due to Salala incident and episode of Osama bin Laden in 2011. Nevertheless, the two countries managed to get back on track and improve the bilateral ties. “Immediate result in connection to civil nuclear cooperation is not expected but this could be a step forward,” said an officialwho was not authorized to talk to media. 

 

From, The Nation

China’s Neutron Bomb: An Perspective Analysis Through West Hemisphere's Attitude

Why does China develop weapons systems that it opposes? China criticizes U.S. ballistic missile defense (BMD) systems, but conducted three BMD tests of its own from 2010 to 2014. China regularly supports a treaty to ban space weapons, but has repeatedly tested an anti-satellite (ASAT) system. It is also unclear how China’s nascent hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV), reportedly designated the WU-14, might fit into its military doctrine. In general, China’s rapid military modernization and opaque defense budget only exacerbate concerns over the compatibility between China’s stated views and actual practice in developing strategic weapons.

Mushroom cloud of nuke blast.

One way to answer this puzzle is to look at history, specifically the history of China’s neutron bomb program. From 1977 to 1988 China developed a neutron bomb, more formally known as an enhanced radiation weapon. Neutron bombs are specialized tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) with reduced blast effects and enhanced radiation. Similar to the BMD and ASAT puzzles, this weapon appears incompatible with China’s stated nuclear doctrine. China’s no first use doctrine emphasizes strategic forces and responding only to a nuclear attack, whereas a neutron bomb is tactical and ideal for first use against conventional forces.

The puzzle deepens because there is no evidence that China ever deployed a neutron bomb. Declassified U.S. intelligence and Chinese press reports indicate the PRC developed and tested this capability, but give no indication of deployment. The timing is odd too, as China was impoverished in the 1970s but still chose to develop an expensive weapon like the neutron bomb. It waited until 1988 to test a final design, after relations with the Soviet Union (the presumed adversary during the program) had improved.

My new National Defense University monograph uses primary sources such as biographies of Chinese nuclear weapons scientists, press reports, and technical articles to answer these questions. These sources allow us to reconstruct the neutron bomb program’s history and assess what drove decisions throughout the program. As a case study China’s neutron bomb program contributes to broader discussions about China’s weapons development decision making then and now.

Mushroom cloud of Neutron Bomb blast.

The neutron bomb case study suggests a model of a “technology reserve,” in which China develops a weapons technology to match the capabilities of another state, but defers deployment and keeps them in reserve. The longer report also considers how this model might apply to China’s decision-making on BMD, ASAT, and HGV systems. To assess the drivers behind Chinese decisions, the report uses five variables as an analytical framework:

1.     China’s strategic environment – What security concerns drove China’s decision to build a neutron bomb?

2.     The neutron bomb’s strategic value – How did Chinese leaders perceive the neutron bomb’s strategic value against likely threats?

3.     The neutron bomb’s normative value – Would a neutron bomb enhance China’s international prestige, or lead to opprobrium because of a taboo against the weapon?

4.     Resource demands – What were the political, financial, material, and personnel demands for this weapon?

5.     Technological feasibility – What were the challenges for developing and producing a neutron bomb, and how did Chinese scientists address them?

A final intervening variable is coalition politics. Champions and opponents of any weapons program can greatly affect decisions. In the case of China’s neutron bomb, General Zhang Aiping was a key advocate for the weapon. With these variables in mind, China’s neutron bomb program followed three stages.

1977-1980: Decision and Initial Research

In 1977 Chinese media followed the controversy over the U.S. decision to develop and deploy the neutron bomb in Europe. Soviet media denounced the U.S. neutron bomb as the “perfect capitalist weapon,” and pressed China to also condemn it. Instead Chinese media kept a neutral tone, making the Soviets more alarmed over Beijing’s “silence.” On September 21, 1977 Chinese General Zhang Aiping broke the silence with—of all things—a poem in the state-run newspaper People’s Daily:

Steel alloys are not strong, and

Neutron bombs are not difficult.

When heroes study the sciences intensely,

They can storm all earth’s strategic passes.

At this point Chinese leaders had already ordered initial research into the neutron bomb. Regarding their motivations, one scientist recalled Deng’s statement in 1966 “What others have already done, we also must do; what others have not yet done, we certainly must also do.” The message was clear—if other countries had the neutron bomb so should China. Some scientists initially opposed developing a neutron bomb, because they worried such a program would disrupt higher priority work in miniaturizing nuclear warheads for use on missiles. Ultimately they acquiesced, knowing they no longer held the same political clout they once had, and that Chinese leaders were prioritizing conventional instead of nuclear weapons.

1980-1984: Developing “The Second Generation of Light Boats”

In 1980 General Zhang Aiping told a member of a visiting U.S. delegation that China needed the neutron bomb against the Soviets. Chinese media also followed France’s neutron bomb development and considered it a symbol of the country’s “great power status” (大国地位). On a technical level, the weaponeers decided neutron bombs and miniaturized warheads (which they were already working on) shared enough common principles that they could combine the two programs into one. Doing so, they divided the neutron bomb problem into constituent parts, or “principles,” and solved them individually. From 1982 to 1984, China conducted five tests related to the ERW and warhead miniaturization.  These tests culminated in a successful “principles breakthrough” test on December 19, 1984, which one weaponeer described in a poem as “the second generation of light boats has passed the bridge.” It appears the “second generation” referred to neutron bombs and miniaturized warheads.

1985-1988: Pause and Reevaluation

In 1985 China halted nuclear testing for 30 months. The pause coincided with a Soviet moratorium on testing and a leadership reshuffle that neutralized neutron bomb proponent General Zhang Aiping. At this point France had also decided against deploying a neutron bomb, solidifying a taboo against the weapon. Nuclear weapons scientists were aware of the international and domestic political challenges to continuing their work. In 1986 they warned PRC leaders that the United States and Soviet Union could conclude a nuclear test ban treaty that would prevent China from modernizing its nuclear arsenal. They proposed accelerated testing to complete new warhead designs, effectively making a “now or never” argument. If China did not complete new warheads soon, it would be at a long-term disadvantage.

Chinese leaders approved the report, and on September 29, 1988, China successfully tested a neutron bomb design. Before doing so a senior weapons scientist Liu Huaqiu wrote two interesting reports. Liu argued China did not need a neutron bomb, but should test a design anyway to put in China’s “technology reserve.”           

          

Conclusions and Implications for Today

What produced the neutron bomb’s outcome of development without deployment, and to what extent do these variables apply today? Strategic concerns and PRC leaders’ desire to match capabilities were key to the initial decision. Zhang Aiping’s political rise and scientists’ “principles” approach sustained the program, but later a receding Soviet threat and Zhang’s retirement stalled it. Yet despite these setbacks, scientists’ argument of “now or never” compelled Chinese leaders to test a final design to keep in a “technology reserve.” The case study also helps frame analyses of other states’ nuclear weapons programs. For example, the scientists’ “principles” approach demonstrated how a state with limited resources may approach development of a complex weapon system.

This case study’s framework and final model are useful for discussions of China’s current weapons systems under development, such as its HGV. HGVs glide through the atmosphere at hypersonic speeds and could be more survivable against BMD systems. Possible drivers for developing this system include its strategic value if the PRC believes the system can defeat U.S. missile defense systems and the normative value of being first to develop an advanced system. Future analyses could include assessments of coalitions advocating the weapon and its technological principles. An immediate recommendation is that instead of panicking over such systems, such as Soviet media did in reaction to China’s neutron bomb, calmer assessments are more constructive.

The longer report covers in greater detail the variables, program specifics, personnel, and conclusions. A good final note here concerns methodology on two fronts. First, the analytical framework of variables facilitates the systematic assessment of drivers throughout the program, and is useful for contemporary analysis of other advanced weapons programs. Second, Chinese primary sources ranging from biographies to social media can be incredibly valuable for deciphering China’s decisions on weapons programs. These points should be useful for today’s China hands and nuclear wonks tackling other security puzzles.

By: Jonathan Ray

Pakistan Seeks To Prop Up Exports, Boost Industry

KARACHI — Pakistan aims to deepen existing partnerships, attract new partners and build equipment at home, despite economic instability and insecurity.

 

A JF-17 Thunder on display at the International Defence Exhibition And Seminar show in Karachi last week.

That drive was on display last week at Pakistan’s biennial defense show, the International Defence Exhibition And Seminar (IDEAS2014).

IDEAS2014 seemed somewhat reduced, since no missile systems or mobility programs were on display. Furthermore, some large contractors, from Western Europe in particular, were absent.

Yet Zaheer Ahmad, vice president of Kestral, representing a range of primarily North American contractors such as L-3 Communications, Lockheed Martin, and Sikorsky, said IDEAS2014 was comparable to any other large exhibition in terms of the variety of attendees and exhibitors.

A number of key smaller exhibitors were present for the first time.

ByField Optics, a developer of surveillance and security products and manufacturer of leading edge ultraviolet/kinetic eye protection and optics, came from Australia. Czech manufacturer Inflatech showcased its inflatable decoys that reflect radar energy and can simulate infrared signatures. Lithuania’s Helisota promoted its helicopter maintenance, overhaul and upgrade expertise. Yugoimport, Serbia’s arms export agency, was also a major presence.

With local industry the largest presence, the bulk of the remainder came from China, Turkey and the US.

The Sino-Pakistani Karakorum K-8 trainer was notable for being displayed armed for the first time with two AIM-9P Sidewinders, practice bombs and a 23mm gun pod in recognition that it now serves in the advanced jet trainer role.

Most eyes were on the JF-17, Pakistan’s flagship defense project, and Nigeria is reported to be in the final stages of negotiations to equip up to two squadrons.

“So far, there are 11 countries talking to us; so far we have not actually signed any deal,” said Air Commodore Khalid Mahmood, director of sales and marketing for the JF-17.

He outlined a wide range of improvements and weapons integrated with the aircraft. Weaponry now includes the CM-102 air-launched supersonic anti-radiation missile and GB-6 air-launched standoff submunition dispenser, which were unveiled at China’s Zhuhai Airshow last month.

Mahmood said Pakistan is “open to all suppliers” for advanced short-range air-to-air missiles, and dispelled rumors the active/passive SD-10A long-range missile was not fully operational.

He stressed the program continues to evolve and potential customers are being offered a partnership, not just an aircraft.

The expected deals for Chinese submarines and Russian Mi-35M helicopter gunships were not signed.

Russian Helicopters representatives said only that the deal is “for more than five.” Pakistan’s Minister for Defence Production Rana Tanvir Hussain also declined to directly address the issue, but did say Pakistan is also considering the Mi-28NE Havoc.

Similarly, Chinese and Pakistan Navy officials would not discuss the submarine contract, but Cmdr. Hasnain Ali of Karachi Shipyard & Engineering Works (KSEW) said they would likely mostly be built in Pakistan.

Other deals have been quietly signed, including those for the third and fourth stealth missile boats being built at KSEW. The remaining pair have yet to be contracted.

Three batteries of the China Aerospace Long-March International LY-80 surface-to-air missile system have been purchased for nearly US $226 million, with eight units of the IBIS-150 air defense surveillance radar for $40 million.

A model of an LY-80 battery was displayed, but little further information was forthcoming.

Analyst Haris Khan of the Pakistan Military Consortium think tank, who attended IDEAS2014, said the LY-80 was a “good system that looks like it will be very effective,” but does not yet know if it will be produced locally as speculated.

NORINCO displayed its SH-1 155mm wheeled artillery system, but Khan said its worn appearance proved it had at least been trialed by Pakistan’s Army, though officials would not comment on this.

State-owned armored fighting vehicle manufacturer Heavy Industries Taxilia (HIT) has been busy. Spokesman Lt. Col. Amer Ahmed Khan said it will partner with Belgian engineering firm and licensee Duma Engineering to produce General Dynamics’ Dragoon four-wheel-drive armored fighting vehicle (AFV).

Of the initial 15, the Airport Security Force will take 10, with HIT retaining five. It is being promoted to the civilian and paramilitary security services, and for export to Nigeria and Saudi Arabia.

Khan confirmed HIT’s plans to produce the Chinese VN1 eight-wheel-drive AFV are “under process,” but development of HIT’s Burraq MRAP vehicle had been abandoned after the US supplied the MaxxPro.

Though the latest variant of the Al Khalid main battle tank was absent, the most modern Mohafiz internal security vehicle was present. It can resist the armor-piercing rounds that penetrated earlier versions.

Also evident was considerable work done in replacing foreign content of the Al Khalid and T-80UD tanks with indigenous equipment to make the systems more affordable and supportable. Similarly, more radical approaches such as a common turret for the main tank types had been discussed, but no action has been taken.

The increasing number of simulators was also aimed at reducing operational costs.

Soft Innovative Systems (SIS) is Pakistan’s largest supplier and has partnered with the Military Vehicle and Research Development Establishment to produce shooting simulators and the surface-to-air weapon simulator to train personnel to operate man-portable air-defense systems.

Speaking for SIS, Muzaffar Hassan said that knowing it could match quality but undercut the Western vendors, SIS is keen to secure business with developing nations, especially those in Africa.

However, a real leap appears to have been made with the Air Force Simulation Environment.

Squadron Leader Abid Ali Khan said it started out as an air defense simulator evolving to simultaneously train pilots, air traffic controllers and radar operators.

“All are linked, so use of the aircraft sim will allow the training of multiple personnel without a single aircraft being flown,” he said. “It is very cost effective and we have also sold one to Jordan.”

Similarly, indigenous UAV firms continue to improve and export widely. Although the Global Industrial and Defence Solutions conglomerate showcased its UAV range, the most notable was perhaps Pak Business Aviation’s Enduro.

Design head Usman Habib said it was the second such all-electric UAV on the market. Fully autonomous, the man-portable Enduro has a range of 20 kilometers and an endurance of up to three hours.

Though HIT makes an armored Toyota Corolla sedan, there has been a considerable increase in private firms offering the same services due to Pakistan’s security situation.

First time exhibitor Streit Group displayed a wide range of military, law enforcement, and civilian/discreet vehicles, and has opened a small factory near Karachi that has modified many civilian vehicles for international clients based in Pakistan.

Also chasing the same clientele were Pak Armouring and UAE-based International Armored Group, with the latter along with Thai firm Chaiseri also offering tactical security vehicles.

Not to be displaced by their Chinese counterparts, Turkish defense firms are working hard to deepen their partnership with Pakistan. Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) continues to heavily promote its T-129 attack helicopter. A memorandum of understanding was recently signed between TAI and the Pakistani government, but details are unavailable.

In the future, TAI also hopes to promote its Hurkus turboprop trainer, but along with software and electronics firms Aselsan and Havelsan, hopes to upgrade the Pakistan Navy’s ATR-72 patrol aircraft.Long time collaborator Yonca-Onuk is also hoping to deepen its relationship with the Navy by offering its MRTP-34 and perhaps MRTP-45 vessels, and hopes to build its MRTP-64 at KSEW under a wide-ranging transfer of technology deal.